Auckland, Northland most at risk in NZ resilience index

A new regional index of infrastructure resilience in New Zealand has flagged Auckland and Northland as the country's most vulnerable areas, with energy supply risks a major driver of exposure to disruption during extreme weather and other shocks.

The New Zealand Infrastructure Resilience Index assesses how well regional networks can withstand and recover from severe weather, natural disasters and other disruptions. It draws on data across electricity, roading, telecommunications and water.

NZIER compiled the index and Downer commissioned the work. The model weights sectors for interdependency, with electricity carrying the highest weight because failures can cascade across other essential services.

Auckland and Northland ranked as the least resilient regions. The research links this to vulnerable energy supply, dependence on critical transmission points and exposure to severe weather.

Waikato and Southland recorded the strongest resilience, which the index attributes to more stable performance across all four sectors.

Maintenance focus

The report's central recommendation is that maintenance is the single biggest enabler of resilience. It describes targeted upkeep as the most direct way to reduce the likelihood and severity of service disruptions when shocks occur.

Murray Robertson, Downer's managing director, linked the findings to wider policy debates on infrastructure planning and funding. "This isn't about highlighting flaws, but about providing an evidence-based guide on where investment and maintenance will have the most impact for our country. The Government's draft National Infrastructure plan emphasises maintenance first, sustainable funding, better project readiness/assurance, and coordinated planning. The index shows how interconnected our infrastructure is, and how strengthening one part of the system can deliver flow-on benefits across others."

Infrastructure New Zealand used the publication to argue for a national discussion on the cost of resilience and how it should be funded over time.

"Spending more today to avoid disruption tomorrow is not wasteful. It reduces emergency repair bills, insurance losses and the social costs borne by communities when infrastructure fails," said Nick Leggett, CEO of Infrastructure New Zealand.

The research notes work already undertaken by central and local government, industry, iwi and communities to strengthen resilience. It also says many findings align with the Government's draft National Infrastructure Plan, which highlights maintenance, coordinated planning and investment in resilience.

Pipeline picture

As part of the research, NZIER reviewed the Infrastructure Commission's national pipeline of projects. The analysis provides a snapshot of major projects underway or in procurement across water, transport, energy and telecommunications.

Project activity was concentrated in Auckland, Waikato and Canterbury, reflecting population pressures and regional investment priorities. Christina Leung, NZIER's deputy chief executive, said the volume of proposed work was encouraging but highlighted the importance of how projects assess current and future risk.

The pipeline assessment also highlights gaps in some regions. Gisborne had 16 roading projects under construction, with none in energy or telecommunications and few in water. In Northland, projects included roading investments, three water treatment facility projects and some flood protection, with no telecommunications projects or substantial energy projects. Wellington had no telecommunications or energy projects, 18 local and state roading projects, and eight water-related projects.

Equity and exposure

The index links infrastructure vulnerability with deprivation, noting that communities in higher-deprivation regions are often more exposed to shocks and have fewer resources for response and recovery.

Gisborne recorded the highest deprivation score, with the largest share of its population in the lowest deciles. The report also links Gisborne's resilience challenges to cyclone exposure and geographic isolation. It scored low for electricity, roading and telecommunications.

Northland also ranks as a high-deprivation region in the research, which points to several outages, including electricity transmission and distribution disruptions. It also describes Auckland as a choke point that can affect Northland's resilience through electricity transmission and roading access.

Sector recommendations

Alongside the maintenance-first message, the report sets out sector-specific recommendations. For electricity, it calls for increased generation capacity closer to demand centres, particularly in Auckland and Northland. It also prioritises strengthening existing transmission and distribution infrastructure to reduce outage risks.

For roading, it recommends more proactive asset management across roads, pavements and bridges, supported by climate-resilient design standards. It also calls for strengthening key bridges and high-traffic arterials against seismic and flood risks, and using more resilient pavement in areas prone to frost or heat.

In telecommunications, the research points to investment to keep pace with changing technology and user needs. It also highlights emergency planning-drawing lessons from Cyclone Gabrielle-and notes the urban-rural divide as a continuing vulnerability, with rural communities facing higher outage risk.

For water, it recommends upgrades to existing Three Waters infrastructure, with a focus on rural communities. It also points to regional governance and sustainable funding mechanisms. The report adds that local stormwater solutions in new housing developments have improved resilience and could be expanded.

Downer plans to update the index annually and track changes over time against a base year of 2021.