Exclusive: AI expert says human displacement likely in 10 years

An artificial intelligence (AI) expert and professor is warning potential human displacement could be a result of AI if people don't manage it correctly.

AI is advancing rapidly before our eyes, with signs of major implications for society moving forward across the globe. In the last 10 years, AI systems have developed at such a speed, it now has the ability to generate and recognise images and speech.

New Zealand's University of Auckland professor Michael Witbrock spoke with TechDay to express his insights and concerns about where AI is headed and the uncertainty of the future.

AI's Advances

Witbrock emphasised the unpredictability of AI's future due to its rapid progress. 

"It's quite difficult to predict the future where something this fundamental is making such significant strides," he said.

However, he believes within the next five to ten years, we could see AI systems exhibiting levels of intelligence comparable to human beings. 

"In terms of the trajectory of human civilisation, it now involves AI as well as humans, as well as all the other animals and ecosystems that share Earth with us. That's a fundamental change, and one we better get right."

Witbrock admitted while the rapid advancement presents "exciting opportunities", it also raises "serious challenges."

Human Displacement 

One of the primary concerns highlighted by Witbrock is the potential for AI to outcompete humans in various fields, leading to significant job displacement. 

"There are reasons to be worried about AI, starting from humanity's ability to absorb this level of change so quickly," he noted. 

He added the rapid development of AI could lead to widespread changes in job roles, making some human tasks obsolete.

Witbrock added those who believe they are at risk of losing their jobs due to AI advancements should "start advocating."

"We have to do something to mitigate the impacts of this change on people," he stressed.

"There's a strong possibility that first it will be clerical type tasks that are taken over and then physical tasks as well. These things will be able to be automated."

"That gives us a responsibility to replace having these jobs where you do something for somebody else or some other organization, or you won't get to support yourself and people that you care about. We have to find a way to bridge all the decoupling needs."

AI Doomerism

The concept of 'AI doomerism' originated in New Zealand with Samuel Butler's writings in the 1860s. He suggested AI could eventually render humans unnecessary.

"The idea behind AI doomerism is that AI systems will be able to do everything humans can do -  rendering us obsolete."

While Witbrock doesn't fully subscribe to Butler's view, he acknowledged the importance of addressing such concerns.

"The inevitable consequence of this is that the machines will get better and better and better. They'll undergo an evolutionary process just like the process which drove biological evolution, and eventually, they will out-compete us and we will be doomed."

"Butler's theory was that we should smash all the machines back in 1860, while we still had a chance," he explained. 

However, Witbrock said "We have missed his deadline by about 160 years."

"Everyone has various ways of being concerned about AI, and none of those concerns are completely irrational."

Governance and Mitigation

To mitigate the risks associated with AI, Witbrock is calling for proactive governance and planning. 

"We should be thinking ahead and preparing for the changes AI will bring," he stated. 

He emphasised that New Zealand, with its history of pragmatic decision-making and strong infrastructure, is well-positioned to lead in integrating and using AI responsibly.

He also highlighted the need to address the immediate impacts of AI on various industries. 

"There must be systems put in place which will mitigate the impact of this process on people," he explained. 

"People who did [the] check out in supermarkets, were affected by automation early on. People who are working in call centers at the moment, you cannot expect those particular types of roles to continue."

"It's inevitable that there are things which will just go away."

Using AI to Prioritise Research

Witbrock stressed the importance of prioritizing biology through research, and using AI for the right things.

He believes that AI has the potential to revolutionize biomedicine and solve complex biological problems that are currently beyond human understanding.

"I think there's a very good possibility that even in my lifetime, diseases will not be things that happen to human beings anymore," Witbrock explained.

He pointed to the example of CRISPR, a gene-editing technology that has already made significant strides in curing genetic diseases like sickle cell anemia. 

With AI acceleration, Witbrock believes similar breakthroughs could become widely applicable technologies. 

"The upside of automating biology and applying AI to biomedicine is so significant that it should be prioritised over everything else," he asserted.

Witbrock added curing cancer is possible using AI.

"All you have to do to cure cancer is to read your DNA out of a bunch of your cells, work out what's common across them, so what the base form DNA is, and then rewrite all the DNA and all your cells to that base form."

"That erases cancer. You can't have cancer if you're doing that."

Balancing Risks and Benefits

While acknowledging the potential risks of AI, Witbrock remains optimistic about its positive impacts. 

He believes that if managed correctly, AI could significantly enhance human capabilities and improve overall well-being.

"The upside of having AI systems that can do all of the useful things we need to do is enormous," he exclaimed.

However, he cautioned against underestimating the challenges that come with integrating AI into society. 

"It's going to be difficult for us to work out how to incorporate AI into our society, but we will have these new kinds of minds to help us understand not only ourselves but one another."

New Zealand's Role in AI Development

Witbrock believes New Zealand has a "unique opportunity to lead in AI development and governance."

"We have a real capability to contribute to fundamental AI research and lead in the appropriate but rapid adoption of AI," he said. 

He envisions a future where New Zealand not only advances in AI research but also integrates AI into its societal framework to enhance the nation's capabilities.

Witbrock sees the potential for New Zealand to "become a hub for AI innovation", by leveraging its small population and strong infrastructure to move quickly.

"If we can turn New Zealand into a place with 5 million stakeholders and 100 million virtual people helping us, we can have a significant impact."