Confirming a view shared by TechDay over a month ago, research house Gartner is describing Microsoft’s moves with Windows and Office as ‘a big gamble’.
Noting that these two divisions account for most of Redmond’s revenue and profit, Gartner says it is a risk that Microsoft must take to stay relevant in a world where mobile devices with new modern experiences are becoming the norm.
"When the PC dominated personal computing by providing a single device for messaging, Internet access, gaming and productivity, Windows was a powerhouse for Microsoft," said Michael Silver, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner.
"However, smartphones and tablets, led by the iPhone and iPad, have changed the way people work, making the PC just one of several devices people use. The PC is increasingly simply a peer with other devices."
With Windows 8, Microsoft is trying to address the tablet market with a new interface.
"Microsoft's approach is very different from that of Apple and Google, where phones and tablets have much more commonality than PCs and tablets," Silver said. "This plays to Microsoft's strength in PCs, leveraging it not only to enter the tablet market, but also to improve its share of the smartphone market."
Meanwhile, Steve Kleynhans, research vice president at Gartner noted that Windows 8 is not a normal low or even high impact major release of the OS. "It's the start of a new era for Microsoft — the RT era — which follows the NT era, which began in 1993 and is just now starting to fade out. Microsoft eras seem to run about 20 years, so the technology underlying Windows 8 will last a long, long time."
Most companies like to reduce technology risk by deploying mature, stable, well-supported products. Windows Vista, for example, never gained significant success in corporate environments; Gartner estimates that Vista peaked at just 8 percent of PCs run by its clients. Its lack of success means a reduced useful life as third parties have already started cutting support.
The bottom line is that IT leaders are questioning whether Windows 8 will suffer a similar fate.
In addition, the new ‘Metro’ UI — which includes large buttons for touch and eliminates the ability to boot to the familiar Windows Desktop and have a traditional Windows start menu — is probably the most controversial decision Microsoft has made. The result is an OS that looks appropriate on new form factors of PC hardware including tablets, hybrids and convertibles, but has people questioning its appropriateness for traditional desktop and notebook machines.
Gartner believes that if Windows 8 on tablets is successful, it will have many impacts. There will be many new device form factors to choose from and users may have very different needs and likes.
Some will still want to use an iPad and a traditional notebook and others may want different, new devices. As users gain more power, due to consumerisation, IT is less able to mandate that certain products be used or not used in their environment. This makes it harder for IT to buy and support PCs the way they have for the past 20 years and may lead to more bring your own device (BYOD) programs. Organisations also need to decide whether they want to create applications expressly for Windows 8 and Metro, write iOS applications, or something more neutral.
Microsoft licensing is also an important topic in many organisations because it can represent a significant percentage of the annual IT budget. Organisations need to decide if they require Software Assurance (SA) on Windows or an Enterprise Agreement as well as reevaluating their decisions based on changes Microsoft is making to the Windows 8 SKU lineup and SA benefits.
"Windows 8 has been released to manufacturing and will be formally launched in October, but the reality is that most organisations are still working on eliminating Windows XP and deploying Windows 7," said Mr. Silver.
"Organisations will need to decide whether they continue with Windows 7 and or consider Windows 8."