What to expect in 2010

Predictions from leading figures in New Zealand telecommunications

The government’s Ultra Fast Broadband initiative is not going to work in its current format. They’re going to have to redo it.

Paul Clarkin, Director, WorldxChange 2010 is the year of the Netbook. By year end we’ll see compelling, low-cost devices that boot straight to the cloud. This new accessibility will lead to a sharp upsurge in demand for a myriad of new cloud-based services. It’s going to be an exciting few years for the software industry.

Rod Drury, Chief Executive, Xero We will continue to see better data speeds coming out of cabinetisation and Local Loop Unbundling. With these speeds, videoconferencing and remote collaboration are more practical than ever. Businesses will maintain their focus on wages and OPEX. The costs on business and staff of maintaining central offices, parking and commutes will all continue to put pressure on our 60s-era central office models. More businesses will see the home office as a realistic and valid work environment with real commercial and environmental benefits.

The Digital Home is coming of age. 2010 will see more devices blending service capability to provide convenience and choice as to where and how we receive information, whether, media, voice or data.

Kefyn Judson, Principal Architect, TelstraClear Naked broadband and VoIP will be a huge growth area in coming years. People are ditching their landlines, but still wanting a ‘landline’ type of service, at landline or cheaper prices. We’ll also start to see converged wireless LAN mobiles that allow for VoIP calls, and telcos will need to adjust plans and business models to offer these services.

This will also mean that the distinction between fixed line, mobile and Internet service provision will continue to blur.

Scott Bartlett, Chief Executive, Orcon Apple will play an interesting role in the development of the media landscape in 2010. It promises two gifts: iTunes as a micropayment platform and its promised Tablet device as a quasi-controlled consumption platform for premium digital news that can replace print. In 2010 it is set to be the great white hope of a stricken media industry looking for a miracle.

Adrian Drury, Principal Media and Broadcast Analyst, Ovum Globally, the market for mobile broadband will continue to expand at a rate that was previously unimaginable. We are talking of billions more users – a world of 50 billion connections (mobile and fixed) by 2020. This would include, for example, burners on the kitchen stove or open garage doors that are enabled to send an SMS to ask their owner if they forgot about them. Also, a sustainable future, where everyone and everything is connected, will need more efficient and more powerful networks.

Long Term Evolution (LTE), the next-generation mobile broadband network, will make significant progress in 2010. Major operators such as Verizon in the US will start deployment and it will be closely watched by New Zealand operators.

Fibre networks will also grow apace and next-gen networks will deliver faster speeds. In New Zealand, people will be thinking more about the applications and service innovations for leveraging these networks (eg: IPTV, videoconferencing, e-health, monitoring and more). ‘Fast enough’ will be defined as the time when businesses and consumers don’t think about speed any longer. Users will become aware that what they are doing uses several inter-related communications paths, and it will become meaningless to talk about speed – rather it will be the effectiveness of the applications and services that becomes meaningful.

Jeff Travers, Managing Director, Ericsson NZ

1. More an observation, but we will continue to see the pendulum swing between distributed and centralised. In the IT/Apps area it is swinging towards centralised in terms of management with cloud computing, yet at the same time in the telecommunications area it’ll continue to swing towards distributed because of choice. Happily, these two forces will balance each other out.

2. Virtualisation will meet VoIP and the outcome will be a hosted VoIP PBX solution to the Centrex problem that many small (and medium) businesses face. Number portability is a key factor.

3. The return of peering. After a long, but in some respects understandable absence, one of the major players will return to peer, and interconnect on a redundant, distributed, high-speed, high-performance basis. This decision will drive a major improvement to customers of several providers, and collectively NZ connectivity will markedly improve for the better. Some will rejoice, some will complain, some will look foolish.

4. As a consequence, the market will revisit differentiated pricing for national and international connectivity. More of a hope than a prediction, but demand onshore will increase as a result.

5. DSL is the new dialup. Customers will realise limited upload is strangulating their ability to truly communicate with the world and do business.

6. The desire for dark fibre will be met with pragmatism, and open access Ethernet will be the winner.

7. Telecommunication companies will be reminded by market research that customer service is paramount.

8. Twitter will finally monetise its business.

9. Google and its acquisitions will consist of more than 30-40% of total international load for most NZ ISPs. Much fluttering of eyelashes towards Google will result.

10. Someone will realise that Aotearoa is the land of the long white computing cloud – except that you can trust it. And that is really important.

11. Number portability, VoIP, mobility and competition will compel new thought on how we connect New Zealanders to emergency services, and how we provide emergency services with the location information that they need.

Jamie Baddeley, General Manager for Sales, FX Networks & Vice President, Internet NZ 2010 will be a next-generation speed revolution. Broadband will top 10Mbps in more homes and keep on rising with bonded VDSL2 from the cabinet. Cell sites in the home will become reality – ‘Femto’ will give you perfect coverage and 10Mbps and more to your phone, PDA or PC with no sharing! Fibre will continue to roll to more roadside cabinets, but it will be 2011 before the government’s Ultra Fast Broadband stimulus bears fruit and we see true FTTH (fibre to the home). Behind the scenes, Optical Transport Networks will step up to 40Gbps and even 100Gbps. Finally, look out for the ‘Tablet’ – the catalyst to true multi-screen experience in the home and on the move.

Martin Sharrock, Chief Technology Officer, Alcatel-Lucent NZ I predict that 2010 will bring dramatically lower prices for mobile telecommunications services and very exciting new services that will bring New Zealand up to the standards of Europe, North America, and  Australia! 2010 is the INFLECTION year for mobile and wireless services. Eric Hertz, Chief Executive, 2degrees Tex Edwards (of 2degrees fame) will be made Telecommunications Commissioner! There you have it – and remember you heard it here first. David Ware, Managing Director, TeamTalk