AI & automation face 2026 shakeout on real business value

Supply chain and technology leaders expect 2026 to be a year when artificial intelligence and automation are judged on measurable business value rather than experimentation, with skills, training, and process design emerging as key pressure points.

Executives from SCALA, Nintex, Qt Group and Glean see automation projects moving from pilots to large-scale deployment, alongside growing concern about the impact on entry-level jobs and core technical skills.

Several predict a sharpening divide between tools that deliver clear returns and those that add complexity or "noise" without improving performance.

Workforce shift

SCALA executive director Chris Clowes expects changes in job content across warehousing, transport and planning functions as AI and automation tools spread. "As we look ahead to 2026, one of the biggest shifts facing supply chain leaders will be how AI, automation and data-driven tools are transforming the nature of our work at every level. The impact it's having on skills, roles and leadership is becoming impossible to ignore."

"Entry-level and transactional jobs that once gave future managers their grounding are disappearing as forecasting, planning and analysis become increasingly automated. At the same time, warehouses are adopting robotics, wearables, and advanced safety systems that raise productivity while reducing headcount, and these systems require new technical skills that not everyone can easily access. Even in transport, the move toward autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles will soon start to reshape what driving roles will look like."

"All of this puts a premium on reskilling, retraining and creating real pathways for progression. Traditional education and training models simply can't keep pace, so businesses, educators and government will need to work far more closely together. Apprenticeships, vocational routes and mid-career retraining will become critical to keeping people employable as job content changes. And as routine tasks fall away, human strengths like judgement, communication and empathy will only grow in value."

"At the same time, we can't ignore the wellbeing dimension. The sheer number of digital tools colleagues interact with daily risks creating cognitive overload. Responsible employers will need to think about wellbeing across both the physical and digital environment, ensuring technology enhances roles rather than eroding them."

"Ultimately, the next phase of supply chain transformation will hinge as much on people as on technology. Organisations that put human capability, inclusion and wellbeing at the centre of their strategy, not at the margins, will be the ones best placed to adapt to what's coming next," said Clowes.

Clowes highlights both the erosion of routine roles and increased demand for judgement, communication and empathy, placing pressure on employers and policymakers to adapt training models.

Automation models

SCALA executive director Adam Coventry expects commercial structures for warehouse automation to change as companies seek to avoid large upfront capital spending. "As we head into 2026, automation is entering a new phase where technology, commercial models and workforce expectations are shifting. The push for genuinely turnkey automation is driving far closer partnerships between software providers, robotics firms and integrators, giving businesses access to cohesive end-to-end solutions rather than piecing together multiple systems. This alignment will be vital as warehouses grow more complex and performance demands continue to rise."

"We're also seeing Robots as a Service evolve into full Automation as a Service. For many, this removes a major barrier by replacing heavy capital investment with predictable operating costs, while enabling continuous upgrades and improved flexibility."

"These developments, however, come with workforce implications. As automation and AI absorb more routine, entry-level tasks, traditional starting roles in warehousing and logistics are declining. That puts pressure on talent pipelines: without those foundational roles, businesses will need new ways to develop the next generation of supervisors, planners and operational leaders. Technical capability will matter, but so will structured, practical experience."

"In the year ahead, the businesses that treat automation as both a technology decision and a people decision will be best positioned to succeed. The aim isn't simply to automate, it's to build operations that are more resilient, more adaptable, and better equipped to develop the workforce of the future," said Coventry.

Coventry sees Automation as a Service models as lowering financial barriers while driving new thinking about how future managers gain operational experience.

UK supply chains

SCALA executive director Rob Wright links UK automation plans to ongoing cost pressures, labour shortages and sustainability targets. "As we move into 2026, UK supply chains face another year where cost pressures, labour shortages and sustainability goals all collide - and that's making automation a fundamental investment. Technologies such as Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMRs) and Automated Guided Vehicles (AGVs) are moving rapidly into the mainstream, helping businesses maintain throughput without relying solely on manual labour. At the same time, AI, machine learning and cloud-based SaaS tools are giving organisations far more intelligence, flexibility and control without the heavy upfront costs."

"This technological shift is unfolding against a backdrop of geopolitical tension, trade uncertainty and climate pressure, so supply diversification will remain a priority. Many UK businesses will continue exploring regional sourcing and nearshoring to strengthen resilience, while sustainability investment accelerates, from electric HGVs to collaborative route planning that reduces empty running and cuts emissions."

"But the real pressure point remains people. Skills shortages persist across the sector, particularly in driving and technical roles. Competitive pay, better shift patterns and clear development pathways will be essential to attracting and retaining the talent needed to support this next phase of change."

"In 2026, the businesses that perform best will be those that invest not only in automation and diversified supply, but in the people and partnerships that underpin resilient operations. Automation will deliver efficiency, but long-term strength will come from how well organisations combine it with skilled teams, sustainable practices and smart, future-ready investment," said Rob Wright, Executive Director, SCALA.

Wright links mainstream adoption of AMRs and AGVs to broader efforts to diversify sourcing and cut emissions, with skills shortages still the main constraint.

AI value test

In the Asia-Pacific region, process automation specialist Nintex expects a more critical stance on AI deployments in 2026. "This year we've seen AI capture the imaginations of business leaders like no other technology before it. While AI pilot programs and experiments have generated a buzz in 2025, 2026 is the year these projects will need to generate value." said Keith Payne, Regional Vice President APAC, Nintex.

"As organisations turn their attention to operationalising their initial forays into AI, many will realise that their existing processes and workflows are unsuitable to having AI bolted on top. One trend we'll see emerge next year is the understanding that before AI can deliver value to the business, existing processes will need to first be automated and optimised."

"AI is a force multiplier. If the processes AI is applied to are already broken or inefficient, those problems don't go away - they get magnified. Ultimately, using AI and automation together is a case of 1+1=3. AI alone may create individual productivity gains, but it takes automation to make it scalable, governable, and deliver true value," said Payne.

Payne expects organisations to focus on process design and automation before expanding AI use, especially where governance and scale are priorities.

Developer skills

In software development, Peter Schneider of Qt Group forecasts greater scrutiny of so-called "vibe coding" practices that rely heavily on generative AI. "In 2026, vibe coding will be less of a novelty, and so more organisations will start looking more critically into it. Without a doubt, AI will continue to be used to alleviate admin burdens and help with repetitive tasks, but it will also be treated more carefully, especially by beginners who risk never developing core skills due to overreliance."

"The winners won't be those replacing developers with AI, but those using focused automation strategically, handling the tedious, repetitive stuff so developers can focus on creative problem solving, architecture, and deep system-level thinking. I expect we'll see traditional tools transitioning into agentic workflows, with tools such as linters and static code analysers being made accessible to AI agents through Model Context Protocol interfaces. Knowledge bases such as programming language and framework documentation will also take a similar jump, becoming available through MCP APIs, as well as compressed skills documents for agentic workflows."

"But, we'll also see the consequences of developers who never learned core concepts or design principles. Organisations will face inconsistent architecture and developers who struggle as systems grow more complex. Smart managers will start ensuring automation supports skill development rather than replacing it," said Schneider.

Schneider anticipates broader use of agentic workflows while warning that weaker foundational skills could undermine software quality as systems scale.

Automation shakeout

Some in the sector expect a market correction as businesses focus on measurable outcomes from AI deployments. "2026 marks the start of natural selection for automation. Tools that create noise rather than value will go extinct, and the AI bubble will burst. The ones that thrive will be grounded in business context and real outcomes. The age of novelty is ending as evolution now favors ROI," said Tony Gentilcore, Co-founder, Engineering, Glean.