If the IDC is to be believed (and why wouldn’t it?) 2011 is going to be a year of “transformational and unpredictable change” for New Zealand's ICT sector.

Ullrich Loeffler, IDC New Zealand's Country Manager, explained, “The future of the telecommunications sector hangs in the balance, awaiting critical policy and commercial decisions that will begin a long term deconstruction and reconstruction of the industry. All ICT markets will be impacted. At the same time, the current wave of disruptive technologies - mobile computing, cloud services and social networking - will mature from early adopter status."

These factors, as well as a “subdued economic outlook and high exchange rate”, will see a focus on cutting costs, managing margins and redefining business strategies.

IDC forecasts steady but unspectacular ICT growth, with total revenues rising 3.2% to $NZ12.19 billion.

The hardware sector is set to be the strongest performer with revenues rising 10% to $2.575 billion, followed by software (up 9% to $1.057 billion) and IT Services (up 3.6% to $2.950 billion).

Bad news for telecommunications though as IDC predicts it will shrink by 0.8% to %5.608 billion as “the squeeze on voice revenues offsets mobile and broadband growth”.

IDC’s key trends for 2011 include:

• Chief Information Officer (CIO) get strategic: priorities will be driving the business value of technology, managing disruption and reforming IT governance
• Everything goes mobile: the Mobile Computing explosion will redefine devices, consumer behavior, workplace practices and create a new applications battlefront.
• Behind enemy lines: Consumer passion for disruptive devices and applications in the workplace will force IT departments to adapt and optimise.
• The cloud fog dissipates: Cloud computing gains traction, but the approach will be 'best fit for purpose' with the focus on migrating, integrating, securing and consistently delivering services.
• Strange bedfellows: disruption will force ICT players into new partnerships and roles for growth, forcing them to reshape, recreate and reconcile business models
• The Ultra-Fast Broadband debate: the myopic debate over who builds the national fibre network will shift to risks of industry restructuring, regulation and how to make it work.
• The Social Enterprise: Social networking will mature - and innovative companies will use it to create a new social business model that empowers staff and transforms business approaches
• Government Trims Down to Gear Up: the new Government public procurement programme drives shared services, providing better frontline services with less duplication
• Connected health services come of age: broadband initiatives, successful telemedicine trials, rapid mobile technology adoption and consumer acceptance means e-health adoption reach a tipping point.
• Rugby World Cup 2011: It's “Scrum-time” not “Try-time” for ICT - The event showcases NZ innovation and stimulates revenues - but pre-match preparation and execution will be critical